hh on Nostr: I always argue that fiat isn't going away because it's simply the most powerful tool ...
I always argue that fiat isn't going away because it's simply the most powerful tool States have to achieve total domination over their subjects, and that Bitcoin will, at most, become a reserve and store of wealth asset/commodity. Just like there are many other asset classes.
As to the visions of hyperbitcoinization and a big upset and collapse of the system, I simply don't think they're going to happen. The incumbents will adapt and will capture as much of Bitcoin as they can, as we've already seen with billionaires like Michael Saylor. Others will follow, and in the last stage even central banks will hold a piece. The most recalcitrant and close-minded among the elites who refuse to hop on the Bitcoin wagon will simply miss out and be relegated -- in that asset. There is always some attrition at the top.
The key difference though, is that Bitcoin is probably the first asset class in recent history that hasn't been captured from inception by the incumbent status-quo beneficiaries. It's truly something phenomenal, in that it gives a bunch of nobodies the opportunity to position themselves as holders of a significant portion of this asset, ahead of the incumbents.
The weakest among us will sell to Michael Saylor and Blackrock, or will allow their BTC to be seized by their government. A second portion of us will fail to turn their Bitcoin wealth into real world wealth and, sooner or later, their stack will succumb to attrition, either because they fail to understand that Bitcoin, as a non-yield bearing asset doesn't replace itself when you spend it, or because they fail to use it wisely as collateral and eventually have to liquidate their holdings.
The remainder who learn how to use Bitcoin correctly and wisely, will eventually join the ranks of the world's elite and become the new incumbents themselves.
Yes, my outlook is quite cynical. This is my bleakest vision of what's to come. Kind of the worst case scenario for which I prepare, just in case.
As to the visions of hyperbitcoinization and a big upset and collapse of the system, I simply don't think they're going to happen. The incumbents will adapt and will capture as much of Bitcoin as they can, as we've already seen with billionaires like Michael Saylor. Others will follow, and in the last stage even central banks will hold a piece. The most recalcitrant and close-minded among the elites who refuse to hop on the Bitcoin wagon will simply miss out and be relegated -- in that asset. There is always some attrition at the top.
The key difference though, is that Bitcoin is probably the first asset class in recent history that hasn't been captured from inception by the incumbent status-quo beneficiaries. It's truly something phenomenal, in that it gives a bunch of nobodies the opportunity to position themselves as holders of a significant portion of this asset, ahead of the incumbents.
The weakest among us will sell to Michael Saylor and Blackrock, or will allow their BTC to be seized by their government. A second portion of us will fail to turn their Bitcoin wealth into real world wealth and, sooner or later, their stack will succumb to attrition, either because they fail to understand that Bitcoin, as a non-yield bearing asset doesn't replace itself when you spend it, or because they fail to use it wisely as collateral and eventually have to liquidate their holdings.
The remainder who learn how to use Bitcoin correctly and wisely, will eventually join the ranks of the world's elite and become the new incumbents themselves.
Yes, my outlook is quite cynical. This is my bleakest vision of what's to come. Kind of the worst case scenario for which I prepare, just in case.