NSmolenskiFan on Nostr: It’s helpful to understand this election through historian @Peter_Turchin ‘s ...
It’s helpful to understand this election through historian @Peter_Turchin ‘s structural-demographic theory of history.
In short, elites consume vastly more resources than everyone else. In good times, the numbers of elites in a society grow. But the numbers of elites tend to grow faster than the number of high-status positions (jobs, appointments, whatever) in a society. At this point, a game of “musical chairs” sets in—elites start getting pushed out, becoming “downwardly mobile.” If economic growth also stagnates or slows, the problem gets even worse, because new elite positions stop being created and may even be destroyed.
At the same time, successful people from lower social statuses are seeking to turn their new wealth into elite status as well. But they are finding the path to higher status increasingly blocked.
This sets up the society for a contest between “established elites” (like the Biden, Harris, Cheney, Clinton coalition) and “outsider elites” (like the Trump, Musk, etc. coalition). Outsider elites politically mobilize their grievances—which come down to the fact that establishment elites won’t give them the status and respect they feel they deserve. (It’s really important to understand that wealth and status are not the same thing. They are different kinds of social capital that may or may not be exchanged for each other.)
Both types of elites seek to enlist everyone else in their factional conflict, which may become violent. A period of civil war (or foreign war) may ensue, which reduces the number of elites to a more sustainable level. Eventually, the society stabilizes and whichever elite faction was victorious gets to re-found the political order.
As long as elite overproduction (total number of elites relative to the number of high-status positions) continues, we will likely see this same contest between insider and outsider elites re-hashed, regardless of who the actual candidates are. Our best bet for getting out of this cycle is rapid economic growth, but unfortunately status-seeking elites for the most part don’t understand how to bring that about.
In short, elites consume vastly more resources than everyone else. In good times, the numbers of elites in a society grow. But the numbers of elites tend to grow faster than the number of high-status positions (jobs, appointments, whatever) in a society. At this point, a game of “musical chairs” sets in—elites start getting pushed out, becoming “downwardly mobile.” If economic growth also stagnates or slows, the problem gets even worse, because new elite positions stop being created and may even be destroyed.
At the same time, successful people from lower social statuses are seeking to turn their new wealth into elite status as well. But they are finding the path to higher status increasingly blocked.
This sets up the society for a contest between “established elites” (like the Biden, Harris, Cheney, Clinton coalition) and “outsider elites” (like the Trump, Musk, etc. coalition). Outsider elites politically mobilize their grievances—which come down to the fact that establishment elites won’t give them the status and respect they feel they deserve. (It’s really important to understand that wealth and status are not the same thing. They are different kinds of social capital that may or may not be exchanged for each other.)
Both types of elites seek to enlist everyone else in their factional conflict, which may become violent. A period of civil war (or foreign war) may ensue, which reduces the number of elites to a more sustainable level. Eventually, the society stabilizes and whichever elite faction was victorious gets to re-found the political order.
As long as elite overproduction (total number of elites relative to the number of high-status positions) continues, we will likely see this same contest between insider and outsider elites re-hashed, regardless of who the actual candidates are. Our best bet for getting out of this cycle is rapid economic growth, but unfortunately status-seeking elites for the most part don’t understand how to bring that about.