repletesumo on Nostr: On TFTC #492 NVK mention that he expects the (US) ETF's to acquire ~20% of all coins ...
On TFTC #492 NVK (npub1az9…m8y8) mention that he expects the (US) ETF's to acquire ~20% of all coins before things start breaking(due to liquidity issues). This is an insightful statement that explains a lot about our current financial system. Let's do some math to explain why.
20% of 21m is 4.2m coins. As of today, the US ETF's have ~800k coins in them. At the current ingest rate of 4kcoins/day it will take the ETF's 2+ years to get to 4.2m coins.
So in 2026-27 we will be looking at:
1. Bitcoin going exponential in terms of $ price OR
2. US executes a 6102 on ETF's to protect the $ OR
3. Both!
Of course, if Bitcoin price rises, the ETF ingest rate of 4k/day will slow down(assuming all other things stay the same, ). For eg: if the price doubles, the ingest rate goes down to 2k/day. So instead of 2 years, we are talking 4 years to get to 20%.
Therefore, this is what the math looks like:
$60k - 2 years(2026) to hyperbitcoinization.
$120k - 4 years(2028)
$240k - 8 years(2032)
$480k - 16 years(2040)
$960k - 32 years(2056)
It's counter intuitive, but THE HIGHER BITCOIN GOES, THE LONGER WE CAN DELAY HYPERBITCOINIZATION and keep the current financial system alive.
This is exactly why governments needs inflation in other assets as well(real estate, stocks etc).
TLDR: FIAT BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEMS NEED INFLATION TO SURVIVE.
20% of 21m is 4.2m coins. As of today, the US ETF's have ~800k coins in them. At the current ingest rate of 4kcoins/day it will take the ETF's 2+ years to get to 4.2m coins.
So in 2026-27 we will be looking at:
1. Bitcoin going exponential in terms of $ price OR
2. US executes a 6102 on ETF's to protect the $ OR
3. Both!
Of course, if Bitcoin price rises, the ETF ingest rate of 4k/day will slow down(assuming all other things stay the same, ). For eg: if the price doubles, the ingest rate goes down to 2k/day. So instead of 2 years, we are talking 4 years to get to 20%.
Therefore, this is what the math looks like:
$60k - 2 years(2026) to hyperbitcoinization.
$120k - 4 years(2028)
$240k - 8 years(2032)
$480k - 16 years(2040)
$960k - 32 years(2056)
It's counter intuitive, but THE HIGHER BITCOIN GOES, THE LONGER WE CAN DELAY HYPERBITCOINIZATION and keep the current financial system alive.
This is exactly why governments needs inflation in other assets as well(real estate, stocks etc).
TLDR: FIAT BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEMS NEED INFLATION TO SURVIVE.