bootlace on Nostr: better from Google Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Experiment, though they hide cutting off ...
better from Google Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Experiment, though they hide cutting off your finger behind the words "Tricking you...". Let's call social-bio-mechanical-engineering from now on.
This is a fascinating and complex question! There's no single definitive dollar amount, but we can break down the factors to give you a realistic understanding. It's not just about the Bitcoin value itself, but also about *who* you are and *why* a nation-state would target you.
Here's a breakdown of the elements to consider:
**1. The Immense Difficulty of Brute-Forcing BIP39 Passphrases:**
* **12 words = High Entropy:** A 12-word BIP39 passphrase, drawn from a 2048-word dictionary, has roughly 2<sup>128</sup> possible combinations. This is astronomically large.
* **Current Computing Power:** Even with massive computing resources, brute-forcing this space is currently considered practically impossible within any reasonable timeframe (years, decades, even centuries with current technology).
* **Nation-State Resources:** Nation-states have access to significant computing power, potentially including custom ASICs, supercomputers, and cloud computing resources. They could theoretically dedicate more resources than any individual or criminal group.
**However, Brute-Forcing is Still Extremely Expensive & Time-Consuming, Even for Nation-States.**
**2. Factors Beyond Just Bitcoin Value:**
A nation-state isn't just going to target you *solely* for the Bitcoin if brute-forcing is required. The cost and risk of such an operation are immense. They would need other compelling reasons:
* **Intelligence Gathering:** Are you a person of interest for intelligence purposes? Do you hold sensitive information beyond just Bitcoin? This could include:
* **Political figures:** Dissidents, opposition leaders, activists.
* **Journalists:** Especially those investigating sensitive topics.
* **Business leaders:** In strategic industries or with geopolitical importance.
* **Military or intelligence personnel:** Even if retired, they might be targets for information.
* **Individuals involved in illicit activities:** (Though this is a grey area - nation-states might prefer other methods for this).
* **Geopolitical Leverage:** Could gaining control of your Bitcoin (and potentially your identity/information linked to it) give them geopolitical leverage? This is less likely unless you are a very high-profile individual.
* **Disruption or Sabotage:** Could compromising your wallet disrupt something they want to disrupt? Again, unlikely unless you are connected to critical infrastructure or highly sensitive systems (which should not rely on a personal Bitcoin wallet for security).
* **Demonstration of Capability:** In rare cases, a nation-state might want to demonstrate its cyber capabilities. Cracking a seemingly "uncrackable" passphrase could be a form of signaling or intimidation. This is less about the *value* of your Bitcoin and more about projecting power.
**3. The "Worth It" Threshold - A Dynamic and Subjective Calculation:**
* **Cost vs. Benefit Analysis:** For a nation-state, the "worth it" calculation involves weighing the potential benefit (Bitcoin value + other factors) against the immense cost, time, and risk of a brute-force attack.
* **Opportunity Cost:** Nation-states have limited resources. Are there easier, more lucrative, or strategically important targets they could pursue instead? Brute-forcing your passphrase is likely to be a very low-efficiency operation compared to other cyber activities.
* **Risk of Detection and Retaliation:** Attributing a brute-force attack, while difficult, is not impossible. A nation-state undertaking such an operation would have to consider the potential diplomatic or retaliatory consequences if discovered.
**4. Estimating a Hypothetical Value Threshold (Very Rough and Speculative):**
Considering the immense cost and effort of brute-forcing, and the alternative methods available to nation-states (phishing, keylogging, social engineering, software vulnerabilities, hardware compromises – which are *far* more likely attack vectors), the Bitcoin value alone would likely need to be **extremely high, likely in the hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars** to *solely* justify a dedicated brute-force attempt on a 12-word BIP39 passphrase.
**However, remember this is highly speculative and depends heavily on the factors in point #2.**
**It's more likely they would target you if:**
* **You are a high-profile individual with geopolitical significance.** In this case, even a smaller Bitcoin balance could be a *component* of a larger operation aimed at intelligence gathering or leverage.
* **Your Bitcoin is exceptionally large AND you possess other highly valuable intelligence.** The Bitcoin becomes the "cherry on top" of a broader intelligence operation.
**5. Important Caveats and Real-World Considerations:**
* **Focus on Easier Attacks:** Nation-states are far more likely to use easier and cheaper attack vectors than brute-forcing. This includes:
* **Targeted Phishing:** Crafting highly convincing phishing attacks to steal your passphrase.
* **Keylogging/Malware:** Compromising your devices to record your keystrokes.
* **Social Engineering:** Tricking you into revealing your passphrase through manipulation.
* **Software/Hardware Vulnerabilities:** Exploiting weaknesses in your wallet software or hardware.
* **Supply Chain Attacks:** Compromising hardware before it even reaches you.
* **Brute-Force is a Last Resort:** Brute-force would be an absolute last resort if all other methods have failed and the target is exceptionally high-value.
* **Quantum Computing (Future Threat):** While currently not a practical threat to BIP39 security, advancements in quantum computing *could* theoretically reduce the cost of brute-forcing in the future. However, this is still highly speculative and years away.
**In Conclusion:**
It's extremely unlikely a nation-state would target you *solely* to brute-force your 12-word BIP39 passphrase just for the Bitcoin, unless:
* **Your Bitcoin balance is astronomically large (hundreds of millions or billions).**
* **You are a person of significant geopolitical interest, and the Bitcoin is a secondary, but still valuable, component of a larger operation.**
For most individuals, even with substantial Bitcoin holdings, the risk of a nation-state brute-forcing your passphrase is practically negligible. **You should be far more concerned about phishing, malware, social engineering, and other simpler attack vectors.**
**Focus your security efforts on:**
* **Strong passphrase generation and secure storage (offline, hardware wallet).**
* **Being extremely vigilant against phishing and social engineering.**
* **Keeping your software and devices secure.**
* **Using reputable and secure wallet software and hardware.**
By focusing on these practical security measures, you will be far better protected against the *real* threats, which are not (currently) nation-state brute-force attacks on your BIP39 passphrase.
This is a fascinating and complex question! There's no single definitive dollar amount, but we can break down the factors to give you a realistic understanding. It's not just about the Bitcoin value itself, but also about *who* you are and *why* a nation-state would target you.
Here's a breakdown of the elements to consider:
**1. The Immense Difficulty of Brute-Forcing BIP39 Passphrases:**
* **12 words = High Entropy:** A 12-word BIP39 passphrase, drawn from a 2048-word dictionary, has roughly 2<sup>128</sup> possible combinations. This is astronomically large.
* **Current Computing Power:** Even with massive computing resources, brute-forcing this space is currently considered practically impossible within any reasonable timeframe (years, decades, even centuries with current technology).
* **Nation-State Resources:** Nation-states have access to significant computing power, potentially including custom ASICs, supercomputers, and cloud computing resources. They could theoretically dedicate more resources than any individual or criminal group.
**However, Brute-Forcing is Still Extremely Expensive & Time-Consuming, Even for Nation-States.**
**2. Factors Beyond Just Bitcoin Value:**
A nation-state isn't just going to target you *solely* for the Bitcoin if brute-forcing is required. The cost and risk of such an operation are immense. They would need other compelling reasons:
* **Intelligence Gathering:** Are you a person of interest for intelligence purposes? Do you hold sensitive information beyond just Bitcoin? This could include:
* **Political figures:** Dissidents, opposition leaders, activists.
* **Journalists:** Especially those investigating sensitive topics.
* **Business leaders:** In strategic industries or with geopolitical importance.
* **Military or intelligence personnel:** Even if retired, they might be targets for information.
* **Individuals involved in illicit activities:** (Though this is a grey area - nation-states might prefer other methods for this).
* **Geopolitical Leverage:** Could gaining control of your Bitcoin (and potentially your identity/information linked to it) give them geopolitical leverage? This is less likely unless you are a very high-profile individual.
* **Disruption or Sabotage:** Could compromising your wallet disrupt something they want to disrupt? Again, unlikely unless you are connected to critical infrastructure or highly sensitive systems (which should not rely on a personal Bitcoin wallet for security).
* **Demonstration of Capability:** In rare cases, a nation-state might want to demonstrate its cyber capabilities. Cracking a seemingly "uncrackable" passphrase could be a form of signaling or intimidation. This is less about the *value* of your Bitcoin and more about projecting power.
**3. The "Worth It" Threshold - A Dynamic and Subjective Calculation:**
* **Cost vs. Benefit Analysis:** For a nation-state, the "worth it" calculation involves weighing the potential benefit (Bitcoin value + other factors) against the immense cost, time, and risk of a brute-force attack.
* **Opportunity Cost:** Nation-states have limited resources. Are there easier, more lucrative, or strategically important targets they could pursue instead? Brute-forcing your passphrase is likely to be a very low-efficiency operation compared to other cyber activities.
* **Risk of Detection and Retaliation:** Attributing a brute-force attack, while difficult, is not impossible. A nation-state undertaking such an operation would have to consider the potential diplomatic or retaliatory consequences if discovered.
**4. Estimating a Hypothetical Value Threshold (Very Rough and Speculative):**
Considering the immense cost and effort of brute-forcing, and the alternative methods available to nation-states (phishing, keylogging, social engineering, software vulnerabilities, hardware compromises – which are *far* more likely attack vectors), the Bitcoin value alone would likely need to be **extremely high, likely in the hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars** to *solely* justify a dedicated brute-force attempt on a 12-word BIP39 passphrase.
**However, remember this is highly speculative and depends heavily on the factors in point #2.**
**It's more likely they would target you if:**
* **You are a high-profile individual with geopolitical significance.** In this case, even a smaller Bitcoin balance could be a *component* of a larger operation aimed at intelligence gathering or leverage.
* **Your Bitcoin is exceptionally large AND you possess other highly valuable intelligence.** The Bitcoin becomes the "cherry on top" of a broader intelligence operation.
**5. Important Caveats and Real-World Considerations:**
* **Focus on Easier Attacks:** Nation-states are far more likely to use easier and cheaper attack vectors than brute-forcing. This includes:
* **Targeted Phishing:** Crafting highly convincing phishing attacks to steal your passphrase.
* **Keylogging/Malware:** Compromising your devices to record your keystrokes.
* **Social Engineering:** Tricking you into revealing your passphrase through manipulation.
* **Software/Hardware Vulnerabilities:** Exploiting weaknesses in your wallet software or hardware.
* **Supply Chain Attacks:** Compromising hardware before it even reaches you.
* **Brute-Force is a Last Resort:** Brute-force would be an absolute last resort if all other methods have failed and the target is exceptionally high-value.
* **Quantum Computing (Future Threat):** While currently not a practical threat to BIP39 security, advancements in quantum computing *could* theoretically reduce the cost of brute-forcing in the future. However, this is still highly speculative and years away.
**In Conclusion:**
It's extremely unlikely a nation-state would target you *solely* to brute-force your 12-word BIP39 passphrase just for the Bitcoin, unless:
* **Your Bitcoin balance is astronomically large (hundreds of millions or billions).**
* **You are a person of significant geopolitical interest, and the Bitcoin is a secondary, but still valuable, component of a larger operation.**
For most individuals, even with substantial Bitcoin holdings, the risk of a nation-state brute-forcing your passphrase is practically negligible. **You should be far more concerned about phishing, malware, social engineering, and other simpler attack vectors.**
**Focus your security efforts on:**
* **Strong passphrase generation and secure storage (offline, hardware wallet).**
* **Being extremely vigilant against phishing and social engineering.**
* **Keeping your software and devices secure.**
* **Using reputable and secure wallet software and hardware.**
By focusing on these practical security measures, you will be far better protected against the *real* threats, which are not (currently) nation-state brute-force attacks on your BIP39 passphrase.