Is a political settlement between Russia and Ukraine on the cards? I am sceptical | Rajan Menon
Is a political settlement between Russia and Ukraine on the cards? I am sceptical | Rajan Menon
Neither war fatigue nor the fear of an escalation into nuclear war seem enough to spur on negotiations to end the conflictRussia’s war against Ukraine has passed the two-and-a-half-year mark, intensifying international calls for a political settlement. But Kyiv and Moscow’s minimal conditions for peace remain irreconcilable. Volodymyr Zelenskiy wants to regain all territories seized by Russia not just since 24 February 2022, but in 2014 as well. Vladimir Putin wants four Ukrainian provinces – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – plus a Ukraine that is barred from Nato membership and constrained by caps on troop numbers and armaments, which Moscow demanded in the negotiations held with Kyiv in April 2022.Both leaders have stated publicly that they are open to negotiations, but neither has abandoned his longstanding goals or given up on victory. As a result, Russia’s army grinds forward in Donetsk (the main theatre of war), albeit at a heavy cost in troops and equipment, and threatens key towns. And last month, Ukrainian troops stunned Moscow by pushing into Kursk province undetected, eventually occupying some 500 square miles, more than the Russian army has in Donetsk all year.Rajan Menon is a political scientist who has travelled across wartime Ukraine on four occasions and is the co-author of Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order Continue reading...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/17/political-settlement-russia-ukraine-nuclear-war
Neither war fatigue nor the fear of an escalation into nuclear war seem enough to spur on negotiations to end the conflictRussia’s war against Ukraine has passed the two-and-a-half-year mark, intensifying international calls for a political settlement. But Kyiv and Moscow’s minimal conditions for peace remain irreconcilable. Volodymyr Zelenskiy wants to regain all territories seized by Russia not just since 24 February 2022, but in 2014 as well. Vladimir Putin wants four Ukrainian provinces – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – plus a Ukraine that is barred from Nato membership and constrained by caps on troop numbers and armaments, which Moscow demanded in the negotiations held with Kyiv in April 2022.Both leaders have stated publicly that they are open to negotiations, but neither has abandoned his longstanding goals or given up on victory. As a result, Russia’s army grinds forward in Donetsk (the main theatre of war), albeit at a heavy cost in troops and equipment, and threatens key towns. And last month, Ukrainian troops stunned Moscow by pushing into Kursk province undetected, eventually occupying some 500 square miles, more than the Russian army has in Donetsk all year.Rajan Menon is a political scientist who has travelled across wartime Ukraine on four occasions and is the co-author of Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order Continue reading...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/17/political-settlement-russia-ukraine-nuclear-war